The Iraq War as Confirmation
For me, the final proof that this crisis is imminent was the US invasion of Iraq. It has now become clear that the 'reasons' given for the war – terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, threats to other countries, UN resolutions – were all false, or at least of minor importance (see my page elsewhere). The clear reason was, as suspected all along, oil.
The first Gulf War, over the invasion of Kuwait, was clearly about it. Would the USA have given tuppence over that little country if it hadn't been sitting on the world's fourth biggest oil reserves? America isn't concerned about oil at the moment – they could have signed a deal with Saddam Hussein as they had often done before. But they are thinking a decade ahead when most of the world's oil production will come from the Middle East. Out of the top five oil producers, Iran and Iraq (with Saddam Hussein in power) were hostile to the USA, Saudi Arabia was unstable and potentially hostile, and Kuwait was a tiny country between the three and unable to stand up to any. The other, Russia, still could not be trusted as far as America was concerned. It was a clear possibility that America might one day find itself isolated from most of the world's oil – a disaster for the world's biggest consumer.
Hence the need to introduce a strong and secure military presence in the region. The USA will not leave Iraq, however peaceful and democratic it becomes. If the country becomes pro-USA, the military will stay through Iraq's 'request'. If the country remains hostile, the US will remain for 'security' reasons. In reality, they are there to safeguard the flow of oil. The illegal and unjustified (unless you accept the morality of taking by force what is not yours) war confirms to me that the US government is well aware of the upcoming threat and it doing something about it. The invasion of Iraq was the second of the oil wars – who knows how many more there will be.
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